Abstract 275 - Assessing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) denning habitat vulnerability to wildfires in Manitoba, Canada

Stephen Petersen, Assiniboine Park Conservancy ProfessionalSalon 8/9

Adam Grottoli, Courtney Shuert, Stephen D. Petersen

Polar bears rely on safe denning habitats for successful reproduction. Within the Manitoba
range of the Western Hudson Bay sub-population, females den exclusively in terrestrial habitats
utilizing banks and ridges near waterbodies that remain stable due to vegetation and
permafrost. Following a wildfire, this habitat becomes unsuitable for denning. In a warming
climate, wildfire disturbance may alter the habitat in ways that make it unsuitable for denning
indefinitely. Understanding the scale and spatial distribution of wildfire risk to denning habitat
is imperative for effective forest and wildlife management. Our study aims to identify where
suitable denning habitat intersects with regions that are susceptible to wildfires. Denning data
and habitat characteristics were compiled to create a habitat suitability model for denning
polar bears in the Hudson Plains Ecozone of Manitoba. The habitat suitability model showed
regions suitable for denning in the Wildlife Management Areas around Wapusk National Park.
Using historical fire data, topographic features, and Landsat imagery, we developed a random
forest machine learning model trained to predict where fires are most likely to burn given
current environmental conditions. Validation of the random forest model using a subset of
historical fire data showed it is highly reliable in assigning regions an accurate level of wildfire
risk. Given the unique characteristics of wildfire in a region with discontinuous permafrost and
with large amounts of peat, this model is critical to predicting where wildfire may burn.
Combining the habitat and wildfire models highlights regions where polar denning habitat is
susceptible to wildfires. Future efforts will refine wildfire models with additional data and
investigate denning polar bear return periods post-fire. Insights into how polar bears use these
denning habitats and their vulnerability to wildfires will facilitate informed conservation and
management strategies in Manitoba.

Thu 17:00 - 21:00
Habitat Relationships, Poster Presentation
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