Abstract 265 – Invitation to Participate: An experimental comparison of expert elicitation data and empirical data of American black bears

Darcy Doran-Myers and Conor McGowan

Expert elicitation is increasingly used in ecology to fill data gaps. The reliability of expert
elicitation as a source of data is seldom verified, but it is pivotal for credible research results.
This presentation is an invitation to participate in a USFWS-backed study designed to test the
accuracy and precision of expert judgments in ecology. The goal is to externally validate the
reliability of expert judgments and to investigate the factors affecting data accuracy. The
American black bear and its species experts is an ideal study system for this purpose because of
the bear's extensive range, decades of empirical research using consistent methods, and the
availability of numerous knowledgeable experts (you all!).
Invitation #1: I am compiling a large dataset of existing black bear genetic mark-recapture
datasets. I ask willing conference attendees to contribute data to this effort. By aggregating
existing datasets, I aim to generate comprehensive estimates of key parameters, such as
population abundance and survival rates, informed by various environmental factors. These
estimates will serve as a benchmark to evaluate the performance of expert judgments.
Invitation #2: I am recruiting black bear experts across the species range to serve on expert
panels. The call for participation extends to the broad spectrum of black bear specialists, at all
career levels, to ensure a diverse and representative sample. Experts will be asked to share
their expertise and provide estimates of local, regional, and range-wide parameters through an
initial survey, two rounds of online elicitation, and one round of online discussion.
Your participation will help to enhance our understanding of expert elicitation data in ecology,
thereby influencing the future of ecological research methods. You may personally benefit
through data acknowledgement, co-authorship where appropriate, and a better understanding
of black bear populations at large scales and your own species knowledge.