Harry Reynolds

Movement Dynamics and Habitat Suitability of the Gobi Bear (Ursus arctos gobiensis) in Mongolia

Abstract:
The Government of Mongolia has been tasked with developing and implementing a national program to protect and increase the population of the Mazaalai (Gobi bear), which remains in small numbers within the 16,000 square kilometer area of the Great Gobi Strictly Protected Area in the Altai Trans-Gobi region. In collaboration with governmental and non-governmental environmental organizations, the National Program for the Conservation of the Mazaalai Bear (2014–2030) is currently being implemented.
The research and management of the Gobi bear population—which differs significantly from other bear species in terms of habitat and ecological conditions—has become a critical issue attracting the attention of not only Mongolian researchers but also the international scientific community.
Based on the aforementioned legal acts, we have developed a habitat model for the Mazaalai bear. This work aims to provide a fundamental basis for the successful implementation of the Mazaalai bear conservation management plan.
The Gobi bear, or Mazaalai, is a critically endangered subspecies of the brown bear endemic to the Trans-Altai Gobi Desert of Mongolia. As of 2026, the population is estimated at approximately 51 individuals. This study synthesizes movement data and predictive habitat modeling to inform conservation strategies for this desert-adapted predator.
Methods: Researchers utilized GPS satellite collars and non-invasive DNA-based mark-recapture methods to monitor movement patterns across the Great Gobi "A" Strictly Protected Area (GGSPA). Habitat suitability was assessed using MaxEnt modeling, incorporating environmental predictors such as precipitation, temperature, and the distribution of key dietary plants (Nitraria, Ephedra, and Rheum nanum).
Individual movements are highly dependent on three primary oasis complexes: Atas-Inges, Shar Khuls, and Tsagaan Bogd.