Xiaoxing Bian, Ron Swaisgood, Megan Owen

Climate change modeling is common tool used to anticipate climate change impacts on wildlife and inform adaptive conservation planning. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on climate-sensitive bamboo forests and limited ecological flexibility. Numerous studies have projected climate-driven changes in panda, predicting shifts in suitable habitat, heightened heat stress and changes in bamboo quality. We are conducting a systematic synthesis of published projections to better understand patterns of agreement and uncertainty across studies. Model outputs reporting quantitative changes in suitable habitat are being compiled along with information on climate scenarios, spatial extent, environmental predictors, and key ecological assumptions. The synthesis examines where projections converge or diverge across mountain ranges, explores how differences in model structure and variable selection may influence outcomes, and reviews conservation and management actions proposed in the literature. This work will provide a consolidated assessment of projected climate impacts, clarify sources of variability among models, and help identify priorities to support long-term climate adaptation and place-based conservation planning for giant pandas.