Abstract 19 – Predicting the potential habitat of bears under a changing climate in Nepal

Rishi Baral, Rajan Prasad Paudel, Binaya Adhikari, Rabin Kadariya, Naresh Subedi,
Bed Kumar Dhakal, Michito Shimozuru, Toshio Tsubota

In Nepal, the distributions of three bear species vary: sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in the
lowlands, Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) in the mid-hills, and brown bears (Ursus arctos)
in the high Himalayas. We utilized 179 occurrence points for sloth bears, 199 for Asiatic black
bears, and 41 points for brown bears to construct a habitat model incorporating climate and
topographic variables. Employing various species distribution modeling algorithms in BIOMOD2,
the model predicts suitable habitats spanning 10,971.75 km2 for sloth bears, 29,470.75 km2 for
Asiatic black bears, and 6,152.97 km2 for brown bears. Within protected areas, the habitat for
sloth bears is 4,120.56 km2, that for Asiatic black bears is 9,688.67 km2, and that for brown
bears is 4,538.67 km2. Chitwan National Park emerged as the prime sloth bear habitat with a
core area of 918.55 km2 and a buffer zone of 726.485 km2. The Annapurna Conservation Area
was deemed suitable for Asiatic black bears and brown bears, covering 2,802.23 km2 and
2,795.91 km2, respectively. The models projected a significant reduction in the habitat of these
bear species both inside and outside protected areas. As predicted under the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)2-4.5 scenario, sloth bears may experience 54.9% (2050) and
44.7% (2070) losses, respectively, of habitat; Asiatic black bears, 11.2% (2050) and 16.8%
(2070); and brown bears, 68.41% (2050) and 82.20% (2070) losses. The overlap between sloth
bears and black bears spans 38.7 km2, and that between brown bears and black bears is 26.6
km2. Notably, all three bear species exhibited suitability correlations with the intermediate
temperature of the driest quarter. Examining current and projected habitats provides essential
information for guiding conservation strategies and ensuring the conservation of these bear
species in the face of climate change.