Abstract 250 – The rise and fall? of the Swedish brown bear population

Jonas Kindberg, Matthew Grainger, Erlend Nilsen

Effective conservation of the Swedish brown bear population has led to a significant increase in
population size and distribution. Estimates indicate a growth from 130 individuals a century ago
to 3300 individuals in 2008. Consequently, there has been a notable rise in hunting quotas and
protective measures to mitigate depredation. For instance, the number of bears targeted for
hunting has increased from fewer than 100 two decades ago to 750 in 2023, constituting over
25% of the total population.
This rapid escalation has sparked discussions among managers implementing population
reduction strategies without compromising the future conservation status of the population.
Leveraging demographic insights gleaned from research and monitoring, we have developed an
online harvest model specifically tailored for female bears to aid decision-making processes.
This model, constructed as an age-structured population model, features a user-friendly
interface powered by Shiny. This interface empowers managers to input key parameters such
as the population size of females, with 95% confidence intervals from the latest survey, as well
as data on harvested individuals since the last survey and setting a quota for the forthcoming
period. The model outputs projections of female population size for up to five years into the
future.
The rationale behind deploying a web-based model, as opposed to traditional report
dissemination, is to foster greater engagement and understanding of monitoring practices
among stakeholders, thereby enhancing awareness of the repercussions of harvest quotas on
future population dynamics. To facilitate effective utilisation of the model, introductory
seminars and workshops are conducted to address enquiries and solicit feedback for ongoing
refinement of the methodology.
Analysis of model results underscores the need to reassess the sustainability of current harvest
quotas, as they are projected to precipitate a population crash within a few years.