Patrizia Giangregorio, Anna Padula, Federica Mattucci, Romolo Caniglia, Elena Fabbri, Francesca Davoli, Vincenzo Gervasi, Vincenzo Buono, Nicole Macrì, Roberta Latini, Daniela Gentile, Fausto Quattrociocchi, Laura Scillitani, Antonio Antonucci, Giovanna Di Domenico, Emanuela Peria, Ivana Pizzol, Domenico Serafini, Marta Mastrantonio, Gianpiero Di Clemente, Antonio Lecce, Ilaria Guj, Simone Ricci, Antonio Di Croce, Sara Marini, Davide Pagliaroli, Paolo Ciucci, Elisabetta Tosoni, Giorgio Valle, Giovanni Barbon, Elisa Laparra, Nadia Mucci

Small and isolated populations face heightened demographic and genetic risks, often exacerbated by anthropogenic pressures. The Apennine brown bear exemplifies such vulnerability, persisting as a long-term isolated population within a human-dominated landscape. Comprehensive understanding of genetic diversity and spatial dynamics over extended timeframes is essential to assess population resilience and inform conservation strategies.
This study integrates genetic data collected over 25 years of non-invasive monitoring (2000–2025), ending with the most recent population estimate within the DigitAP (PNRR) project, encompassing about 5,500 samples analyzed at 17 microsatellite loci. Individual multilocus genotypes were reconstructed to estimate minimum annual population size, identify generations when field data allowed, and document mortality events. All samples were georeferenced to assess individual occurrences and characterize dispersal patterns. Temporal analyses were conducted to evaluate trends in genetic diversity, relatedness, inbreeding, effective population size, and bottleneck signatures.
Results confirm persistent low genetic diversity and small effective population sizes, alongside relatedness, inbreeding, and historic bottleneck events consistent with prolonged isolation. No marked genetic deterioration was detected, suggesting short-term genetic stability. Georeferenced data indicated a progressive expansion of the species’ range beyond the historical core area, predominantly driven by male dispersal, whereas females showed a more modest yet detectable expansion.
Although short-term genetic stability and range expansion are encouraging, low genetic diversity continues to represent a major vulnerability that keeps this population vulnerable to genetic erosion and inbreeding. These findings highlight the importance of sustained long-term genetic monitoring integrated with field-based data to guide adaptive and functional management.

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