John Boulanger, Grant MacHutchon, David Paetkau, Wayne Kasworm

Small isolated wildlife populations are often at great conservation risk. Quantitative monitoring of their conservation status over time and evidence of recovery is relatively rare. We carried out population surveys of grizzly bears pre- (2005) and post- (2020-21) conservation management, to assess the efficacy of strategic measures applied to the at-risk Canadian South Selkirk grizzly bear population in southeast British Columbia. We evaluated our management outcomes by comparing our recent survey results to recovery targets outlined in a 2016 Recovery Management Plan which included abundance, trend, number and distribution of females, distribution of reproductive females, mortality rate, and inter-population connectivity. Surveys consisted of remote genetic sampling where DNA from hair roots generated genotypes identifying individuals, sex, and family units. In 2020-2021, we identified 73 individuals (41 females, 32 males) that were used in a spatially-explicit capture-recapture (SECR) density estimate, and 8 individuals sampled opportunistically that were used in our connectivity analysis. We estimated the average number of bears using the area to be 69 (95% CI 56-86), which exceeded our closure-corrected recovery target of 60 bears. Densities were highest in the northern and central portions of the area, but average density was estimated at 17 grizzly bears / 1000 km2 (95% CI 14-22). Female distribution and reproduction varied spatially but occurred in all six subunits which exceeded our target of occurring in five. Human-caused female mortality over the past six years was 0.5 bears/year, below our target of 1/year. We identified nine immigrants (1F, 8M) who bred 27 offspring (12F, 15M) with other South Selkirk mates. This level of connectivity and gene flow represented a substantial increase for this previously fragmented population. Our results suggest that 15 years of conservation management have significantly improved the status of this population.