Neil Carter

Human risk perception of living alongside large carnivores strongly influences attitudes toward these animals, yet most studies fail to link these perceptions to conservation decision-making. What is sorely missing is the integration of social and community contexts into risk perception assessments, which could enhance predictions of local support for various conservation actions. For Tibetan herders in the Sanjiangyuan region of the Tibetan Plateau, where cultural ties to the land and its wildlife are deeply rooted and community life supports survival, developing a nuanced understanding of human dimensions and community contexts can be the key to addressing the novel challenges of intensified human-bear conflicts posed by recovering and rewilding of Tibetan brown bears (Ursus arctos pruinosus).
To investigate how social and community attributes shape herders’ risk perception and collective responses to conflicts, we applied the ICONS model of risk perception and socio-ecological vulnerability theory. Using a quasi-experimental design, we conducted 400 questionnaire surveys across two Sanjiangyuan counties with similar social-ecological contexts but distinct conflict histories. We employed mixed regression models and spatial analysis to examine how norms, shared information effects, and spatial connectedness influence herders’ risk perceptions and vulnerability to bear-related risks, and consequently shape preferences for four types of mitigation strategies.
By applying well-established theories to a novel conservation challenge, this study will advance the mechanistic understanding of various human dimensions in a critical socio-ecological system. Findings will provide evidence and context-based insights for decision-makers in Sanjiangyuan and beyond to help develop co-beneficial solutions for both people and wildlife, ultimately creating enabling conditions for sustainable coexistence.