Laura García de la Fuente, University of Oviedo

Measuring the economic dependence of rural and mountain businesses on brown bears can reveal the extent to which the species has become an indispensable element of natural capital for many areas that have committed to its conservation. A quantification of the direct economic contribution of Cantabrian brown bears to local economies and their potential to support jobs is here presented, considering patterns in time and space. The study has covered most of the distribution area in NW Spain and considers that its effect goes beyond that linked to bear-watching tourism. In 2018 a socioeconomic stratified random sampling covered 198 businesses located in 32 municipalities; in 2025, this data collection process involved 220 businesses spread across 28 municipalities already sampled in 2018 (panel for monitoring effects over time) and another 40 with more recent presence of the species (to measure differences in territories with varying levels and years of bear presence). The 30% of the sampled businesses perceived that their turnover and clientele depended in 2025 on the presence of the brown bear; for them, on average 37% of the annual income depends on bears, being "Services related to nature tourism and ecotourism" and “Active tourism and accommodation” the most dependent activities. The highest economic dependence is found in the central-western bear sector (39% of businesses dependent and 40% of their turnover), with a more consolidated population and a greater number of bears with cubs, particularly marked in those municipalities that have projected an image of coexistence and conservation of bears as their endogenous resource. The research confirms that economic dependence has grown between 2018-2025 in the municipalities under control, as the probability of dependence has grown significantly in both eastern and central-western population areas, with an average percentage of turnover linked to bears remaining similar or increasing slightly with respect to 2018.